Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Last year (2112) NYC homicides dipped 20% -- last year NYPD stops dropped 22%. Listening Chicago?


515 NYC homicides in 2011 -- 414 NYC homicides in 2012
http://gothamist.com/2012/12/28/nyc_hits_record_low_murder_rate_in.php
685,724 NYPD stops in 2011 -- 533,042 NYPD stops in 2012
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/major_decline_in_nypd_stop_frisks_UH6jmAZBUhv8Hk1wZ2TycM

 Another interesting factoid: "Further, stop-and-frisk has not reduced the number of people who fall victim to shootings. In 2002, there were 1,892 victims of gunfire and 97,296 stops. In 2011, there were still 1,821 victims of gunfire but a record 685,724 stops." http://www.nyclu.org/node/1598

Friday, August 9, 2013

Half of the American workforce no longer needed?!


Pure free market; no crying towel needed: the bottom 50% of America’s workforce now takes 12% of overall income. It is hard to believe that the products and services produced by this half of America's workforce (70 million people!) would no longer be in demand over a few percent shift in overall income from the top 50% brought about by a $15/hr minimum wage (today's median wage).

Half the workforce, 70 million employees would receive an average $8,000/yr = $560 billion added to the cost of $15.8 trillion economic output = only 3.6% direct inflation.  Probably wouldn't lead to much additional inflation.  Economies with high minimum wages have median wages not much higher.  LBJ's 1968 median was only 25% higher than his approaching $11/hr minimum wage (at half today's per capita output!).
 * * * * * * 
My minimum wage worksheet -- my easily-could-have-been minimum wage double-indexed for inflation and per capita income growth:

yr  per capita    real     nominal  dbl-index   %-of

68    15,473    10.74      (1.60)                    100%
69-70-71-72-73              [real, low point -- 8.41]
74    18,284      9.47      (2.00)     12.61          
75    18,313      9.11      (2.10)     12.61
76    18,945      9.44      (2.30)     13.04        72%
77                                                               [8.86]
78     20,422     9.49      (2.65)      14.11
79     20,696     9.33      (2.90)      14.32
80     20,236     8.78      (3.10)      14.00     
81     20,112     8.61      (3.35)      13.89        62%
82-83-84-85-86-87-88-89                          [6.31]
90     24,000     6.79      (3.80)      16.56  
91     23,540     7.29      (4.25)      16.24        44%
92-93-94-95                                                [6.51]
96     25,887     7.07      (4.75)      17.85
97     26,884     7.49      (5.15)      19.02        39%
98-99-00-01-02-03-04-05-06                      [5.97]
07     29,075     6.59      (5.85)       20.09
08     28,166     7.10      (6.55)       19.45
09     27,819     7.89      (7.25)       19.42        40%
10-11-12                                                      [7.37]  

13    29,209?    7.25      (7.25)      20.20?     36%? 

Thursday, August 8, 2013

How to actually stop stop-and-frisk -- snail mailed to 22 NYC Legal Aid Society offices


Set-Up – just to catch attention:
The odds must be 1,000 to 1 against any one person having a suspicious bulge in their clothing resembling a weapon – justifying a police frisk.  Maybe a lot more: never happened to me and I’m ready to turn 70 (and Irish).  That makes it at least 1,000,000 to 1 against any two persons thrown up against a wall together being legitimately searched (1,000 X 1,000), 1,000,000,000 to 1 for three, etc.

Offended neighborhoods and groups can draw attention to this mathematical implausibility by getting school kids especially (the most unlikely targets) as well as other multiple-molest victims educated how to sound off “a thousand”, “a million”, “a billion” any time they are tossed.  They can stage street theater near schools instructing kids -- and everybody else – how to sound off.  Make especially good TV in front of New York City Hall.

The Sting – the end of stop-and-frisk:
This stop-and-frisk eighth-grade math should then be combined with the exclusionary rule: the US Supreme Court decision that illegally obtained evidence must be thrown out.  If cops know in advance that anything they happen across in their unconstitutional meanderings will not be admissible -- that when they get to court the defense will simply scream that the odds are at least a billion to one against the stop-and-frisk having been legitimate – then cops will no longer be in such a hurry to roust multiple parties at once.

The eighth-grade math works just as nicely for a single person who gets stopped multiple times.  Police keep a searchable record of all stops.  If victim of repeated stops keeps a record of all his dates, times, places and police names and numbers, then, he can use police records to provide the same dismissal of evidence formula.

Don’t forget to scream out in court that 7X as many stops-and-frisks (by 2011) were instigated after crime dropped 4X (before Bloomberg) = 28X as many stops-and-frisks per reported crime: case dismissed!