An 800 pound guerrilla (USRA*) can liberate Afghanistan

Liberate twenty million Afghan women from house arrest and all Afghan adults and children from the threat of catastrophic starvation ...

… possibly without taking a single Allied casualty.

The Taliban military – if you want to call it that – does not possess a single tank, no more than a few  abandoned Russian artillery barrels nor one attack helicopter.    From the military prowess standpoint the Taliban clocks in as no better than a national crime gang.  Their most powerful weapons are automatic personal weapons and shoulder fired rockets.

Taliban non popular support: David Brooks said on PBS News Hour: “ ... one of the good things that has happened in the Middle East over the last several years is that people have taken a look at the Taliban, and they hate it. A survey of 11 countries, Muslim countries, only 13 percent of positive views about the Taliban.”  I’m guessing back in Afghan home that might come in at more like 5 percent.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/brooks-and-capehart-on-kabul-attack-jan-6-investigation-voting-rights
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The thing is this: if our military moved back in there – with the promise to leave their so-called military alone as long as they leave ours alone – the Afghan government couldn't do much of anything about it.  If they picked a fight with any regular army, they'd be smashed.  They would have no incentive to militarily oppose our landings – as long as we did not land in downtown Kabul.

If we can move 120,000 refugees out in two weeks, without planning, we can move 100,000 soldiers and aviators back in in a similar time frame.  Say we take Bagram airbase back.  Their fighters would be free to leave – they may take their weapons with them.

Once, having set up a few bases the Taliban cannot attack without 100% casualties, we could get down to the business of deploying the “second government" – the knows-what-it's-doing, competent (and well funded) government.  First priority, distribute the necessities of life (likely with international NGO and UN org help).  What could the would-be Afghan military do but look on in envy?

Next comes popular revolt? – in stages?  The women especially – having been introduced to what I call “Zoom World”; and now demanding the same advantages, everyone everywhere else enjoys – were the first out of the box protesting the return of Taliban oppression and will now have their nerve reinforced.

40,000,000 Afghans v. 100,000 very unpopular weirdos -- 40 to 1 modernizing population v. crackpot police state.  100,000 Allied troops just hanging around v. 100, 000 can’t-do-anything-about-us-hanging-around hated screwballs. Sprinkling 50 M-1 tanks around symbolically – no real use – could further depress and frustrate Taliban leadership. Sounds like an untenable social mixture for them – unstable politically to say the least – encouraging upheaval?

Think about this the next time the media finds time to notice the bloated stomachs and prominent rib cages of Afghan children.  Where does an 800 pound guerilla sit?  Anywhere it wants to.
    
(*United States Regular Army)