Thursday, October 23, 2008

Imagine $272,000 the TYPICAL family income of the top quintile -- instead of the AVERAGE!

Denis Drew Says:
October 23, 2008 at 11:02 am

More on the need for great not good moves to save American labor (sorry of I carry on and on so, but I am left for dead American labor):

Imagine if the typical top 20 percentile family earned $272,000/yr –instead of the average income of top 20 percentile families being $272,000/yr.

(The Census says $186,000/yr but its family numbers add up to only 67% growth over 40 years while per capita income grew 100%. If family income grew 90% — the difference hidden by top coding income above one million — that would add an extra $86,000 to the top quintile average.)

Wouldn’t just about everybody but Newt Grinchrich agree that the labor of our imaginary top 20 percentile families was not worth that much more than the labor of bottom 20 percentile families ($16,000/yr, not counting food stamps and other helps). Top 20 percentiler’s are not rocket scientists by and large (even if they were!).

That all the excess income (income shift) has been traced to top 3 percentile pockets, overwhelmingly to the top 1 percentile, most especially to the top .1 percentile does not make the situation any less bizarre. CEOs, news anchors and ball players making 25 times what their predecessors did is possibly more extremely out of line with economic common sense…

…creating the necessity to do what we should have done all along – what we would have to do even if a “fairy godmother” wave a magic wand and reset income distribution between the oceans and below the Canadian border to 1973 specs to prevent the income slippage from happening all over again: set up a system of sector-wide labor agreements and institute the highest practicable minimum wage…

…not the (wont even save super market workers from the race to the bottom induced two-tier contracts) card check left-over and not the slow stepped minimum wage increases that will end up a dollar below 1968 by 2011.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Ike's minimum wage pushed it as hard as LBJ's -- 2/3 of 'real" average wage"

I've been noting that LBJ's 1968 minimum wage ($10/hr in today's money) was really pushing the limits at two-thirds of the "real" average wage ("real" meaning all non-investment personal income divided by 2000 hours X 140 million jobs -- not the gov's number, whatever that's based on, which grew only 20% over the last 40 years while per capita income grew 100%).

I've just realized that Ike's 1956 minimum wage ($8/hr) was pushing it exactly as hard as LBJ's.

Come to think of it, pushing the minimum wage to two-thirds of the "real" average wage in lower productivity times when average income was only 50% or 40% of today's -- if we believe those stink tanks dedicated to protecting the working poor from the highest pay they could command with adequate bargaining power -- would have done the most damage to low wage employment when there was so much less income head room. Obviously they had the opposite effect in much tighter living standard times.

In tribute to LBJ, the $8/hr minimum was not Ike's idea. LBJ as Senate majority leader, looked at the Senate floor one day in 1956, realized there were not enough members of the opposition present and called an instant vote to pass the $8/hr minimum wage. Ike had the decency and political realism in his words to sign it.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

LINK: The Greatest Explanation for the Great Depression, dot.com boom & housing bubble?


http://hnn.us/articles/55614.html

Professor James Livingston explains simply that if business squeezes too much money out of labor, then, demand drops and business has no healthy place to invest its excess profits (plant and equipment) and heads out in search speculative paper which the only alternative (dot.com start ups with no realistic business model, risky real estate): leading us from bubble to bubble.

Ditto for Bush's tax breaks for the already too rich being invested in, guess what, real estate paper.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Rational utility v. rational selfishness -- in the free market


Unfettered market enthusiasts perceive a matrix of rational decisions -- only of the innocent, comparative value seeking sort -- leading virtually automatically to prices (including labor prices) that accurately reflect relative utility. Anyone sufficiently familiar with selfish human nature knows that equally (often dominant) rational decisions of market players constitute maneuvering themselves into position to be the indispensable
last lot sellers while maneuvering everyone else into being the desperate fire sale sellers -- this being very rational indeed.

Pre-industrialization, the labor market pitted fire sale sellers v. fire sale sellers -- e.g., individual weavers v. individual clothes makers -- result: both made decent livings for their time. Post-industrialization pitted newly minted last lot sellers v. fire sale sellers -- e.g., steam loom factory owners v. (100 X more productive) steam loom operators -- result: owners got to live in the big houses on the hill while operators whole families got to live on oat cakes three times a day because they could no longer afford wheat bread.

Formula for post industrial labor market fairness: last lot seller v. lately minted last lot seller -- e.g., ownership v. (sector-wide) collective bargaining and the highest practicable minimum wage.

See also:

Friday, October 10, 2008

Addictive habits of violent street gangs and "Karl Markets" Repbulicans


Street gangs (we'll get to Republicans in a moment) substitute their love and money for the love a kid does not get at home and the money the member cannot earn in the straight economy. The gangs (we are almost to Republicans) also substitute the feeling of the (negative) accomplishment of gratuitous violence for the feeling of the real accomplishment of tasks on a straight job: making the violence addictive. The latter connection goes mostly unnoticed because the connection is so weak (a substitute).


"Karl Markets" Republicans substitute their free market ideology for the good feeling of (hard work acquired) understanding of a complex economy: why they, too, find their substitute so addictive; it, too, being all they've got in the world.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Chinese snake dance theory -- v. -- reptilian (economic) geek responses


If we could put everyone in the labor market to sleep and change their pay around without them remembering what they used to earn when the woke up (I saw a movie like this once) -- if we shaved what we thought was the excessive wages of the top 3 percentile in today's American labor market and spread it over the pay of the bottom 90 percentile so that the overall result resembled 1973 wage distribution -- and then woke everybody up: the top 3 percentile would still compete with each other with the same skill sets, they just would be competing in a (now) poorer country; the bottom 90 would do the same in a (now) richer country.


Otherwise all should go on as before. Well, not completely as before: more goods would be produced for lower wage workers (more cars, fewer boats) which -- since lower wage workers tend to some extent to work in businesses serving lower wage consumers -- might result in more demand for lower wage workers. Corresponding lower demand for to top 3 percentile earners could just mean they had to lower their labor prices a bit -- but we are being overly theoretical.

That is my (cab driver) "Chinese snake dance" theory of wage and employment. :-).

Is such adjustment dangerous to the economy if too far out of proportion? Too far out of proportion is top earners making 5-25X what similar employees made 25-35 years ago for doing the same thing -- while the minimum wage drops almost in half as average income doubles. The latter is something to worry about!
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Boys who are on the hunt for new ideas cannot come up with new ideas because they are on the hunt -- for a kill today -- not the time to introduce new thoughts, no, no; time to cooperate using what we all know already.

Unfortunately, this modus operandi -- this rigid hunter/not-gather instinct -- follows geek (economic) boys into the library when they are all alone at 1 AM. Just as surely as a cat's eyes will follow a moving object back and forth, back and forth, geek boys will internally coordinate all (not some or only most) of their thinking with what every other geek boy is thinking all over the country when they are involved in a national conversation. CANNOT COME HOME EMPTY HANDED TODAY -- EMBARRASSING. :-)

Could this be why the abstract answer to the race to the bottom -- which is lying around waiting to be picked up all over the world from Indonesia to Canada: sector-wide labor agreements NEVER (!!!) makes it to the national conversation table while some last sliver of brain dead 1940s labor law, the card-check, spotted by some smart labor lawyer, is pressed into service as the salvation of labor organizing.

What if he had not come across it? Can we not think for ourselves? Are we to have fourth-world labor law behind Indonesia, Argentina and modern OECD economies?

[Addendum: Maybe if I could talk some Republicans into pushing sector-wide collective bargaining -- as a means of one-upping Democrats with the blue collar who Republicans are about to lose (David Frum a good prospect?) -- maybe then progressives would scramble to get out front on sector-wide even if they did not fully understand what they were pushing. He, He. Maybe if I could just scare progressives into thinking I was getting Republicans to go alone when I wasn't really getting anywhere with them -- maybe that would be enough to panic Democrats and progressives into pushing sector-wide. He, he, he.]

Saturday, October 4, 2008

To over-price lower skilled labor or to under-price higher skilled labor -- is this the quesiton?


Santa Fe’s minimum wage raise to $8.50/hr (now $9.50/hr, soon indexed) lost lower skilled workers a significant number of jobs (8.3%, adjusted for something – nominal employment rose) many to higher skilled replacements
, according to a think tank committed to protecting the working poor from higher wages.

Could such pay/employment trade-offs lie in the future as America catches up wages with productivity growth?

Simple (ask any minimum wage earner) job/wage resolution:
1) If lower skilled workers lose a percentage of jobs to a higher minimum wage (or any broadband wage increase), they should earn more over a lifetime because they will earn more when they are working ($3.35/hr more in 2005 Santa Fe!) – which should be most of the time.
2) Higher skilled workers would be earning enough extra to pay a bit more in taxes to fund some cover for the lower skilled if needed.
******
Quick lopsided income tutorial:
At $186,000/yr, the average family income reported by the Census for top 20 percentile families may sound out of proportion – your typical primary care provider earning well below that these days – but is actually a little less than we might expect if family income growth matched per capita income growth reported by the same Census: doubled since 1968, when $102,000/yr was the top 20 average.

What is out of proportion is the Census reporting 100% per capita income growth along with 67% (overall) family income growth since 1968 – a 33% family shortfall? The presumed missing 33% -- presumably hidden by the Census practice of “top coding” income over $1 million per family out of its survey -- would add $112,000 to the top quintile average – presuming family income grew exactly the same pace as per capita income since 1968.

Family income may have grown closer to 90% over those years: still leaving $86,000 hidden by the top code (not $111,000): still making for 185% top quintile growth (not 212%), still comparing lopsidedly to the 12%, 22%, 37% and 53% eked out by lower quintiles (much due to more members working more hours). If we add enough dollars to all five quintile 2007 incomes (top quintile growth was reported at only 82%) to bring them into line with 90% growth: the additions total up to the unreported dollop of top income, dollar for dollar (by mathematical definition).

If we could somehow throw a reset switch to share around 2007’s doubled personal income according to 1973's distribution, lower four quintile wage earners would remain in the same relative (skill/pay) bargaining positions vis-à-vis each other in the job market – making for little expectation of more unemployment -- ditto for shaved-income top earners: my “Chinese snake dance” theory of labor price and employment. :-)
******
It is not under-priced labor -- in the sense of people here and overseas willing to work for less -- that is dragging down American wages and causing whole-segment unemployment (see very many American born cab drivers or fast food workers lately?). It is the under-pricing of labor that is causing America's Great Wage Depression (my term covering both lost pay and lost jobs).

If Australia had a 1000 mile land border with China – open, Mexican-American style – Australian labor would need powerful wage support legislation to maintain its native pay and employment at maximum levels: a solid minimum wage (1/2 the “real” average wage -- USA "real" meaning $25/hr; reported AWI up only 20% since 1968) plus the most up to date collective bargaining structure known as sector-wide labor agreements (not the card check attempt to wring one more drop of life out of all but dead labor law -- Australian could actually consider sector wide now that its once effective if eccentric wage support structure has badly eroded).

America's is the only modern OECD labor market facing the double whammy of globalization and yearly immigrating millions; and yet remains the only modern OECD market seriously devoid of legislative defenses against either outside low wage expectations or against the home grown race to the bottom (recently introducing whole-segment unemployment to middle class, would-have-been supermarket employees).

Friday, October 3, 2008

Book Review: Ghost Train – Paul Theroux


More of an open letter to Theroux (but “Book Review” gets more hits):

You found Japan inundated by comics but short on books. A likely result of having to use a unique character for every word – instead of an alphabet.


John W. Campbell, editor of Astounding, once told Isaac Asimov that they both probably knew 300,000 words. Can anyone know 300,000 characters? Would you want to write books in characters? How many would want to read them if you did?


If Japan (or any nation that uses individual character writing) doesn’t want to fall short of world education standards they may ultimately need to shift to using an alphabet.

**************

Vietnamese persistence won the Vietnam war. Which Vietnamese won what? (I only recently read in "The Two Vietnams" by Bernard B. Fall that Vietnam was essentially freed from French colonization in 1949 -- the French Army stayed behind to help fight off Ho's insurgency -- for the information of my fellow misinformed.)


3 million Vietnamese died which probably means 12 million more permanently maimed or wounded by normal distribution of casualties -- out of a population of 35 million -- to inflict a crackpot police state than can get half the population shot at the whim of one madman and a permanently impoverishing economic madness called communism.

Prosperous Vietnam (I virtually never support sanctions)? Prosperous like South Korea? Or at least like Thailand or Singapore?


Korea involved the same civilian and soldier casualty rates as Vietnam. 7 million tons of bombs in 7 years? Maybe if we made it 10 million in 10 years South Vietnam would be free – and truly prosperous – today.


The book, Decent Interval, by former CIA employee Frank Snepp actually claims that we had somebody on Ho’s politibureau and that the bureau had voted to give up on the war after Nixon’s last Hanoi bombing (portrayed by the administration as only targeting industry). In any case, after losing 60,000 American lives over there, when we finally got the South Vietnamese to do all the bloody ground fighting – imagine if we had had that opportunity in Korea (but of course the Koreans could not fight the Chinese single handed. At which point we singed a “peace treaty” and then we pulled out most of the financial and all of the air support -- after which the South still held out three more years.


The worst you or anyone can say about our involvement in the war is that it would not have been worth it to us – and/or it would not have been worth it to the South Vietnamese – even if we did win – that the game wasn’t worth the candle to either.


You come on like we were the root cause of the whole horror because we didn’t drop out and let the South lose. Those 19 year old Hanoi kids volunteering for the army were volunteering to invade another country in order to impose a heavy fascist/stupid economic state the other country did not want (or they could have voted for it right after Ho took the North).

Sunday, September 28, 2008

All comes to megalomaniacs who wait

I like the "inflate our way out of it" part of DeLong's comment on Eichengreen article...

...perfect timing with my megalo plan to shift 12.5% of overall income share from top 3 percentile incomes back to the lower 90 percentile incomes (2001 numbers; may be worse now) by what amounts to using inflation (plus some serious top taxing) -- by doubling the minimum wage and instituting sector-wide labor agreements in this, one of the last economies in the first world (or even second or third world) yet to institute it. With 40% of overall income now spent by the top 10 percentile (up from 27.5% over previous decades) there is plenty of headroom to carve share back -- and it would be providential if the usually feared inflation were actually doing double duty. All things come to he who is megalomaniac.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

The -- half century outdated -- card check


I support the card check bill as one -- outdated -- way to get around the obstacle course placed in the way of union organizing votes -- nobody should have to run the gauntlet just to vote on an political or economic level.


But why is the only proposal on the table an early twentieth century labor law -- retread -- that some smart labor lawyer luckily spotted a few years back -- suppose he hadn't spotted it; can't we think for ourselves?

The late twentieth century answer to the race to the bottom -- to Wal-Mart killing the pay scales of legitimate workplaces -- is SECTOR-WIDE labor agreements: where everybody doing the same job in the same geographic locale must under law work under a common collective bargaining contract even for different firms.

Wal-Mart just closed 88 big boxes in Germany because it could not make out paying the same wages and benefits as everyone else. Supermarket workers and airline employees here would kill for sector-wide agreements.

Germany has the most comprehensive version of sector-wide -- France has a "lite" version where nonunion firms must work under contracts negotiated by union firms. French-Canada has the latter. Our economy is almost the same as French-Canada -- it should be no trouble to incorporate sector-wide "lite" here.

Under German style sector-wide scabs should not exist because everybody must work under the same contract -- and scabs have no contract.

Argentina (second-world) uses sector-wide. Indonesia (third-world) uses sector-wide. Even if we get card check here, American labor law will still be behind the third-world. What are we fourth-world?

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Ramos and Compean: an improperly brought civil rights case

The federal prosecution of the two border guards, Ramos and Compean, began with the prosecution citing a constitutional decision written by Justice White which found an officer could have no authority to shoot a fleeing suspect if the officer did was not sure the suspect had a gun (Tennessee v. Garner, 471 US 1, 1985) – which Ramos and Compean honestly admitted they did not – which sole point is what making the shooting a federal civil right case hung upon.


The ruling was aimed at practices like Tennessee’s which routinely allowed officers to shoot fleeing suspects (an New York State’s not too much earlier – which had a rule that every police officer was to fire a warning shot over the head of every fleeing suspect and then shoot to kill – saw an example of this on a 1960ish episode of “Naked City”) which routinely allowed officers to shoot fleeing suspects.


The opinion of the Court was written specifically for a case of shooting a young teenage burglar who was climbing over a fence in the dark – and who had given the officer no cause to believe he was armed. In other words the opinion was written to do away with routine shooting of fleeing suspects (a then wide spread practice) – and was not nuanced as to the degree of danger facing the officer.


The border guard shot at a fleeing Mexican suspect who had marked himself as a drug dealer by seriously assaulting the officer’s partner (illegal immigrants never assault officers, ditto for coyotes), had abandoned a truck which likely therefore contained enough illegal drugs to put him behind bars for most of his life, and could be assumed to have a gun to protect said shipment: could therefore be plausibly feared to be willing to escape at any cost (A.K.A., armed and dangerous) – unlike a neighborhood teen climbing over a fence.


The Supreme Court decision specifically ruled out shooting if the officer was uncertain a fleeing suspect had a gun – but did not specify taking away the officer’s discretion to shoot without certain knowledge the suspect was gun armed where the totality of circumstances (clearly in this case) announced mortal danger to the officer’s life.


In a more perfect world the border guards' case would be an occasion for a more delineated precedent ("good luck").

Anti school corporal punishment – First attempts at viable equal protection and cruel punishment constitutional challenges -- NEW!


http://nospank.net/n-u88.htm

For a more comprehensive treatment click on: Corporal Punishment in Schools: Economic, Liable, Practical, Ethical, Constitutional?


[3/17/09]
Would we antis know how to answer this: Suppose Oliver had asked for more five times already this week (there isn’t any more to go around; “cannot” have kids constantly coming up front for no reason); suppose he had already been sanctioned with time outs; suppose now he was faced with enduring either two time outs or a beating – his choice. What could be wrong with that?

Answer: there is no compelling need to keep Oliver from coming back every day [or a school child from being tardy every day], as long as his actions did not lead all the other kids don’t start following him every day, making the lunch room impossible to operate [or repeated tardiness somehow making a school room impossible to operate].

No compelling need = no legitimate override of equal protection of the law from being beaten with a stick designed to inflict the maximum amount of unbearable pain.

If Oliver were bringing down the house or broke a bunch of plates or stalked and seriously beat a smaller boy the state (or private school) could arguably claim a compelling interest in corporal punishment. This is sort of the equivalent to justifiable defense (what physicists might call a unified theory).

Question of permanent damage: adults are protected from armed assault, without any need to claim permanent damage, but for the hellishness experience itself. Battered wives do not need to cite permanent damage.
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Sovereignty: acting “in loco parentis” is just a legal mechanism to confer the ability to mange children. Acting “in loco parentis” does not confer the parent’s so-called sovereignty over the children to the teacher – does not reduce students to being virtual slaves who may be beaten at will (may even a parent legally spank a child for nothing?).

Even the parents’ sovereignty itself is a legal mechanism to protect families from untoward intrusion from the state (the teacher is the state – no one to protect from the state; if parents have sovereignty, how can the state’s extension of parental authority to the teacher lead to the teacher overriding the parents’ will not to beat the child?) – the child is never truly a “slave” per se.

If the parent or guardian who has (or is supposed to have) a supportive relationship with the child loses control, the child tends to think nobody cares about it and literally (!) stops caring about itself (easier to imagine with a badly neglected 12 year old than with a merely out of parents’ control 18 year old but just as true) – leaving it prey to every street temptation: robbery and burglary!

So, even if antis don’t approve of corporal punishment at home the state must stay out of it because the consequences of the parent losing control are literally catastrophic for the child. Anyway how many parents practice the ritual beatings done in schools (holes in the paddle!)? How many parents have a menu of swats for each offense like Winona, AK? How many kids have trouble sitting down come to school from home?!

Now, if parents can be liable to prosecution under normal assault statutes if they strap a child for nothing -- for instance, to mistakenly show the child they legally can -- then, teachers who beat a child for less than compelling need -- for instance, possessing tobacco --should be considered liable under normal assault statutes, even if the teacher has to confiscate tobacco from the same student every day, because while it is a nice rule – which may or may not accomplish anything –breaking the rule even every day never leads to catastrophic consequences. Give the student as many detentions as you please, but do not step over what would be a felony assault line with anyone who was not a minor student.

With the above, antis have a nice meaty legal topic for discussion on the talking head shows, not just bleeding hearts and bruised bottoms. Progressive talk shows would love to do the topic but they may have needed more material for discussion then the antis had up until now.

[2/2/09]
Allowing corporal punishment in schools can be argued as making an exception to equal protection – requiring a compelling state interest (we are talking what could otherwise be felony assault here) to override the protection?

To work out what might pass the compelling interest test, let us take an upside-down look at the Oliver scene (“More?”). We antis would not be nearly as horrified if Oliver had done something egregiously wrong, like cold bloodedly beating up a smaller kid or sneaking into the kitchen and breaking up a bunch of dishes. We mostly might not approve anyway – “find another punishment” – but most of us would not get worked up enough to organize against the sort.

To meet the test of compelling interest a student should either have done something egregious – being late repeatedly or smoking in the parking lot does not qualify as wrong-wrong; prevention of such hardly not qualify as a compelling state interest – or be doing something that is chronically and seriously damaging to himself or the school that therefore must be stopped.

The latter prescription might possibly be fulfilled by a seventh or eighth grader perpetually doing the “terrible twos” in the classroom, perpetually disrupting class and perpetually making impossible his own education – relatively rare instances are cited along with the supposed CP resolution. Ideally, law could allow one-time, limited punishment – only after a judicial hearing agreed that parameters are fulfilled. Courts are actually very well equipped to deal with just such questions – perhaps only in minutes. Leaving interpretation to the school would invite the kind of interpretation that cops chronically bring the Fourth Amendment, leaving students rights less than fully protected; and leaving the school open to criminal prosecution if it erred in punishing wrongly.

Ditto, for any application of corporal punishment in high school. To meet compelling interest it would have to be done only on a solely individual basis; no preset formula.
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Let’s deal for a moment with the timing of the emotionally dependent stage in children, which has implications for both equal protection and cruel and unusual punishment aspects of the issue.

Boys are in the emotionally dependent stage, for all practical purposes as much as if they are 12 years old, until they reach 18 1/2 – at least in my observation – at which point their emotional dependent stage switches off like a light switch over one week’s time (from 12 to an adult) – again, as closely as I can observe. Girls should switch off a year or year and a half sooner – I don’t have enough personal observations to be exact.

My observations were related to juvenile delinquency. If a kid did not think anybody cared about him – wrong about half the time -- he literally did not care about himself – meaning no penalty could deter him from crime. Strangely enough boys who were merely out of control of weak but committed guardians (during what NYC police call the “pissing vinegar stage”) got every bit as hysterically alienated as the worst neglected kids. Oddly, again, 5 or 6 weeks of intensive attention would turn the craziest kid around (unlike the 2 or 3 decades of positive socialization needed to retire the paranoia underlying heroin or serious alcohol addiction) – no longer out of his own control – again, strangely, the change comes all in one day at the very end “invasion of the body snatchers “syndrome”) – just to make this practical discovery available to anyone reading this. After 18 1/2 they may have become I-don’t-want-to-work-aholics from a youth of no work or no school – cannot face life at hard labor.
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Now for cruel and unusual punishment plain and simple. There are voluminous reports of early grammar school children being permanently damaged (permanently afraid to go to any school, “not the same kid”) after being beaten. For these kids the verdict is certainly cruel and unusual punishment – plain and simple.

Now for cruel and unusual punishment by proportionality. Most students who are whipped in school while in the emotionally dependent stage maintain very friendly attitudes toward the adult – as long as he is not usually going out of his way to be a bad guy. Post the emotionally dependent stage they may turn to resenting or even hating the teacher for life. They don’t think of the infraction as wrong-wrong (e.g., repeated lateness) in adult perspective – they don’t think of the infraction at all (it is so meager). All they very typically think of is of the person “who beat them like they were an animal.”

Many equate the beating to rape even immediately. Legions of parents are angrily up in arms over what they take for virtual “rape.” Many students who are never beaten themselves are profoundly upset over the beating of other students.
Here the subjective is objective.

If it is rape to you it is rape. It is a factor of innate social feelings like the switching off of the emotionally dependent stage.

I would go much further and speculate that most of the horror of corporal punishment in the school may come from the aspect of being beaten for nothing wrong-wrong – what makes it virtual “rape.”

Topsy-turvy (Oliver style) again: I speculate if a teacher needed to take three whacks to join the local volunteer-fireman’s fraternity, he wouldn’t fret over it, he could sleep the night before, he’d take his three shots of unbearable pain and bear it. But, if he had to take three whacks from the school administration (strain you imaginations please folks) for turning in his pay hours late too many times he would go out of his mind, couldn’t sleep the night before, feel ten times worse at the time he got hit and feel like he was “raped” for years after.

That’s what I think. I’m sure this feeling fits many and probably not most students (how horribly I would feel). I suspect the kid who doesn’t seem to take paddling seriously is the one who doesn’t feel the social aspect (meaning beating is mostly effective on those who feel "raped?").

In any case the never the same kid aspect for young grammar school students and the “rape” horror aspect for too many, probably most high school students raises the proportionality concept of the cruel and unusual constitutional prohibition – and makes the case for not “raping” students over what amounts to office management matters very convincingly I think, if only for a limited number of students (we have no way to tell who they are in advance) who will certainly be permanently traumatized a beating for doing nothing wrong-wrong.

ADDENDUM
If corporal punishment is "optional" as it is in many institutions, then, by definition there must be no COMPELLING need -- overriding equal protection rights (if not humane policy). If there is no compelling need in one constitution there is no compelling need in others.

Optional above was in quotes because (outside) circumstances can coerce a student into taking a beating they never would otherwise agree to. In a Tru video a girl reportedly asks for a break because she is sick and cannot do detention Friday afternoon and cannot do it Saturday or she will miss her Junior (I believe) prom -- and opts to take a beating she may never have been willing to otherwise. A boy needs to go to work and so takes a beating instead of Saturday detention.

Her reported "offense": being caught with a cigarette pack -- his: being barely late for class for the sixth time; on a large campus he took a little too long because he talked to a girl (notify Congress!). I read somewhere that she became class president the next year -- that doesn't sound like an infant terrible.

Don't believe that a beating does less damage than a suspension. Ten years from now, a three day suspension will not have any effect on your life. Spending four years in an institution in which you may be beaten for what amounts to "office management" purposes may plausibly permanently affect your outlook on life for the worse. Paddling supporters love to cite how it did permanently affect them -- usually amounting to adopting a more obsequious attitude towards authority; which can be read as being less confident and assertive about their place in the adult world, which is not where we want our precious children to go these days.


FOR MY FINAL THOUGHTS ON SCHOOL CP (much shorter), LOOK HERE:

Friday, September 19, 2008

Imagine if Australia had a 1000 mile land border with China


Imagine that Australia had a 1000 mile land border with China -- not very well guarded in the tradition in the land of immigrants, the good old USA. Lacking a German style (“heavy”) sector-wide labor contracts setup (sometimes called de facto minimum wages), the only way to keep the price of Australian born low wage labor at the highest practicable level would be to mandate ownership to pay a sensible minimum wage. Ditto for today’s USA reality.


A sensible minimum wage target might be 50% of the "real" * average wage which is about $25/hr in 2008 – suggesting a doubling of today’s minimum wage to about $13/hr. ( * I divide 2/3 of GDP divided by working hours to get my “real” average – the gov averages for only about 1/2 of GDP, which is way short of all non-investment income).

LBJ's 1968 minimum wage was in the neighborhood of 66% (!) of the "real" 1968 average wage of $15/hr (fewer workers per capita, working fewer hours per capita, were divided into the per capita income then) – which was pushing it really hard. And that hard at a time when 12 million desperate immigrants were not vying for the lowest paying 10% of jobs – a time when just the normal pressures of the market were deemed to require a heavy counterbalance for workers with no other bargaining tool.

If a higher wage (or any kind of wage raise) causes job loss to lower skilled workers because higher skilled workers are no longer staying away from the same jobs in droves, then, the previous lower minimum wage may be deemed to have been under-pricing (higher skilled) labor – the new higher minimum wage should not be seen as overpricing (lower skilled) labor. Also, if “higher skilled” workers are still not available for fast food work under a higher minimum wage, then, employers may very well hire the “lower skilled” at the higher wage range.


One -- tragically unhealthy -- case of under-pricing is the new two-tier supermarket contracts against which supermarket unions fought so hard – and lost -- under the pressure of under paid Wal-Mart labor entering the retail food business. Ditto for under pricing minimum wage labor to the $5.15/hr extreme up to 2007, (equivalent to FDR's $4.50/hr minimum w/no tax in 1939) at which price point mostly Mexican born (or in San Francisco Chinese born) workers showed up.

While watching Moscow on the Hudson with Robin Williams I finally figured out the one thing that could compel me to work for $4/hr take home: staying in this country – and that only if I expected to move up; otherwise back to Russia or wherever.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

SHOCK and SURPISE from a minimum wage study!?

Re: It's the wages, stupid! [A time magazine article]

Mostly on the minimum wage:
On the New Jersey study showing fast food jobs were NOT lost when the minimum wage was raised: SHOCK and SURPRISE (!); fast food restaurant labor costs are far higher (33%) higher than typical labor costs -- and use MOSTLY (2+X 33%) minimum pay labor. If fast food restaurants can handle a healthy minimum wage raise, any other business surely can.

Don’t become over anxious from stories of a few pockets of depressed employment that a higher minimum wage supposedly would keep going -- such are always going to occur in big economies and big nations change: can’t drag down the whole workforce’s wages for the inevitable few (Keynes -- in a possibly related situation -- showed that lowering wages in a depression actually keeps the downturn going) -- let them move to where wages are better; that’s economic history. When the mines play out or the steel mills move overseas (or farming goes mechanized) you can only move to where the action is.

If we were not discussing any immediate legislative action but just shooting the breeze abstractly, I think most might agree that IF the USA could pay a $400/wk (2008 dollars) minimum wage in 1968 (at half today’s average income yet), then, "probably" the USA could pay a minimum wage of $500/wk in 2008 without any strain. I say "probably" -- at the least very possibly.

If I can con you into "probably", then, I have conned you into agreeing that a great economic tragedy has "probably" -- at the least very possibly -- taken place (my "Great Wage Depression" which I thinks speaks better than mere "inequality" which sounds like the few taken advantage of by the many). We only have to look around to see that, exclusively in the USA, labor bargaining power has been allowed to deteriorate, to lapse to near zero (more a culture of complacency than exploitation) -- to make a good guess what the source of the wage depression "probably" -- or at least very possibly -- is.

Posted by: Denis Drew | Link to comment | September 17, 2008 at 09:23 AM